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Fang Yi, Chief Strategy Officer of Guotai Junan: The conditions of "transformation cattle" in China stock market are forming four themes, focusing on mergers and acquisitions and self-control. Fang Yi, Chief Analyst of Guotai Junan Strategy, said at the main forum of Guotai Junan 2025 investment strategy that the bottom of China stock market has appeared, and the conditions of "transformation cattle" are forming; The key driving force of the market comes from the decline of risk-free interest rate and the boost of risk preference, and the economic expectation is expected to be revised up in 2025H2; The mid-line of the stock market is expected to get out of the N-rhythm. Theme recommendation: merger and reorganization/self-control/humanoid robot/self-consumption. 1) M&A and reorganization: the regulatory tolerance of cross-border M&A and acquisition of unprofitable assets has been improved, and we are optimistic about the traditional industry leaders who are the main enterprises of science and technology chain and benefit from the optimization of industry structure; 2) Self-control: global science and technology supply chain reconstruction, optimistic about the improvement of localization rate of advanced semiconductors/basic software; 3) Humanoid robot: mass production and application scenario expansion are accelerated, and key components such as dexterous hands/actuators are optimistic; 4) Self-satisfaction consumption: demographic changes have given birth to new consumption patterns, and we are optimistic about the high growth of secondary consumption/pet consumption.Market News: New Zealand has put forward the reason to the United States that it hopes not to introduce new tariffs during Trump's administration.Goldman Sachs expects the average price of iron ore to be 95 USD/ton in 2025 and 90 USD/ton in 2026.

A number of projects have accelerated the implementation of the national water network construction, and the South-to-North Water Transfer Project is a major strategic infrastructure to alleviate the serious shortage of water resources in northern China, and it is the main skeleton and artery of the national water network. On December 12th, the first phase of the East Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project ushered in the 10th anniversary of full water supply. The project has transferred more than 76.7 billion cubic meters of water, providing stable and high-quality water sources for 45 large and medium-sized cities and 185 million people in 7 provinces and cities along the route, and supporting the GDP growth of more than 16 trillion yuan in the northern region. The reporter was informed that in the next step, China will continue to promote the construction of major national water network projects, and a number of large reservoirs, large irrigation areas and other projects are being accelerated. (Economic Information Daily)The probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 94.7%. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability that the Fed will keep the current interest rate unchanged by December is 5.3%, and the cumulative probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 94.7%. The probability of keeping the current interest rate unchanged by January next year is 4.1%, the probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points is 73.7%, and the probability of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points is 22.3%.Trump: I met Harold Daggett, president of Ila.

Suspected of misleading investors and being accused of bundling sales, NVIDIA is frequently involved in anti-monopoly investigations around the world. After China filed an anti-monopoly investigation against NVIDIA a few days ago, on the 12th, this artificial intelligence chip manufacturing giant was once again involved in the judicial turmoil. The US Supreme Court allowed investors to file a class action lawsuit against chipmaker NVIDIA, and rejected NVIDIA's appeal. This is the latest judicial dispute that NVIDIA has fallen into since the French, European Union and China launched an "anti-monopoly investigation" against NVIDIA.Amco: agreed to buy 2,000 bitcoin mining machines from Canaan Creative Global.Goldman Sachs expects the average price of iron ore to be 95 USD/ton in 2025 and 90 USD/ton in 2026.